Last year the JIC produced a hard-hitting report which, the Guardian revealed, found the collapse of globally important ecosystems around the world – including the potential shift of the Amazon from rainforest to savannah, the demise of coral reefs, and the loss of glaciers – would threaten the UK’s national security, through food shortages at home and the potential for conflict overseas.
Smetters offered one note of caution about how war costs are typically framed. “One problem I have with cost-of-war calculations is that they really do ignore the counterfactual,” he said in a bit of an understatement. “If Iran really did get a nuclear weapon, then we might have spent a lot more on military and even repair of cities later on.”
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