These debt-funded projects create “indirect but potentially material” exposure to fiscal risk, the analysts wrote. Beyond infrastructure, governments will have to plan for labor disruptions and related social support. The IMF estimates 40% of global jobs—and 60% in advanced economies—are exposed to AI, particularly high-skill roles, potentially eroding payroll taxes while spiking demand for reskilling and safety nets.
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Subitha Subramaniam, chief economist and head of investment strategy at Sarasin & Partners, said if oil prices remained high for a sustained period: "It will start to cascade into other prices such as food, agriculture, industrial commodities and that's just going to really bleed into inflation."